Raiders vs Broncos — Week 12, 2024
The Raiders took over trailing 26-19 with 3:12 left, 1st & 10 at their own 24, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Broncos.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 19, Broncos 29. Broncos won 29-19 — the drive turnover.
Raiders ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 24, 3:12 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 15.7% for Raiders. Our model starts at 10.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:12) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew sacked at LV 19 for -5 yards (sack split by 55-C.Barton and 0-J.Cooper). LV-15-G.Minshew was injured during the play.
- (2:50) (Shotgun) 10-D.Ridder scrambles left tackle to LV 22 for 3 yards (29-J.McMillian).
- (2:28) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Ridder sacked at LV 14 for -8 yards (15-N.Bonitto). FUMBLES (15-N.Bonitto) [98-J.Franklin-Myers], touched at LV 14, RECOVERED by DEN-97-M.Roach at LV 17.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.89 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.15 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.89 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.74 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.61 pts |
| QB keep | +0.47 pts |
| Quick out | +0.37 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.32 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.12 pts |
| Deep post | -0.11 pts |
| Play action | -0.16 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.18 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.37 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.45 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.46 pts |
| Outside run | -0.72 pts |
| Inside run | -0.97 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.06 pts |
| Spike it | -1.15 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.