Rams vs 49ers — Week 3, 2024
The Rams took over trailing 24-17 with 2:43 left, 1st & 10 at their own 45, 1 timeout in hand, against the 49ers.
What really happened
Final: Rams 27, 49ers 24. Rams won 27-24 — the drive scored.
Rams ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 45, 2:43 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 15.7% for Rams. Our model starts at 13.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:43) 9-M.Stafford pass deep right to 5-T.Atwell to SF 5 for 50 yards (7-C.Ward).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams up the middle to SF 4 for 1 yard (56-L.Floyd, 90-K.Givens).
- (1:54) (Shotgun) 23-K.Williams up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.20 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.38 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.20 pts |
| Deep post | +1.05 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.85 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.77 pts |
| QB keep | +0.66 pts |
| Play action | +0.53 pts |
| Quick out | +0.34 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.30 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.29 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.28 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.04 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.31 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.42 pts |
| Outside run | -0.76 pts |
| Inside run | -1.09 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.20 pts |
| Spike it | -1.38 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.