Ravens vs Browns — Week 8, 2024
The Ravens took over trailing 23-17 with 4:49 left, 1st & 10 at their own 9, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 24, Browns 29. Browns won 29-24 — the drive scored.
Ravens ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. Backed up at their own 9, 4:49 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 15.2% for Ravens. Our model starts at 16.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:49) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson scrambles up the middle to BAL 31 for 22 yards (30-D.Bush).
- (4:05) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson right end pushed ob at BAL 37 for 6 yards (1-J.Thornhill; 30-D.Bush).
- (3:59) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep left to 4-Z.Flowers to CLE 34 for 29 yards (29-C.Mitchell).
- (3:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 89-M.Andrews to CLE 25 for 9 yards (43-M.Diabate).
- (2:49) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 4-Z.Flowers to CLE 2 for 23 yards (0-G.Newsome).
- (2:41) (Shotgun) 66-B.Cleveland reported in as eligible. 22-D.Henry left end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB sneak (-0.79 pts), and the weakest was Deep corner (-1.97 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB sneak | -0.79 pts |
| Curl route | -0.81 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.85 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.88 pts |
| Quick out | -0.94 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.97 pts |
| QB keep | -1.03 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.03 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.10 pts |
| Inside run | -1.60 pts |
| Outside run | -1.60 pts |
| Spike it | -1.66 pts |
| Play action | -1.67 pts |
| Deep post | -1.75 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.77 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.88 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.97 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.