Raiders vs Falcons — Week 15, 2024
The Raiders took over trailing 15-9 with 1:50 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Falcons.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 9, Falcons 15. Falcons won 15-9 — the drive turnover.
Raiders ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 20, 1:50 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 15.3% for Raiders. Our model starts at 8.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:50) (Shotgun) 10-D.Ridder pass short middle to 8-A.Abdullah to LV 27 for 7 yards (40-J.Bertrand).
- (1:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Ridder pass short left to 11-T.Tucker pushed ob at LV 32 for 10 yards (21-M.Hughes).
- (1:10) (Shotgun) 10-D.Ridder pass short left to 16-J.Meyers to LV 33 for 11 yards (55-K.Elliss).
- (:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Ridder pass short middle to 8-A.Abdullah to LV 39 for 6 yards (40-J.Bertrand).
- (:40) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-D.Ridder pass incomplete short left to 16-J.Meyers (21-M.Hughes).
- (:35) (Shotgun) 10-D.Ridder pass short right to 8-A.Abdullah pushed ob at LV 43 for 9 yards (21-M.Hughes).
- (:26) (Shotgun) 10-D.Ridder pass deep left to 16-J.Meyers to ATL 35 for 22 yards (20-D.Alford; 24-A.Terrell).
- (:11) (No Huddle) 10-D.Ridder spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:10) (Shotgun) 10-D.Ridder pass incomplete deep left (32-K.King).
- (:02) (Shotgun) 10-D.Ridder pass deep right INTERCEPTED by 3-J.Bates at ATL -7. Touchback.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+1.02 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-0.95 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +1.02 pts |
| Curl route | +0.95 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.66 pts |
| QB keep | +0.60 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.58 pts |
| Play action | +0.43 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.34 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.34 pts |
| Quick out | +0.26 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.21 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.03 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.23 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.25 pts |
| Outside run | -0.62 pts |
| Inside run | -0.85 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -0.91 pts |
| Spike it | -0.95 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.