Eagles vs Rams — Week 20, 2024
The Eagles took over leading 28-22 with 2:48 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Rams.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 28, Rams 22. Eagles won 28-22 — the drive turned it over.
Playoff football. Eagles ball, up 6 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 30, 2:48 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 89.2% for Eagles. Our model starts at 92.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:48) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right guard to PHI 33 for 3 yards (90-T.Davis).
- (2:44) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts sacked at PHI 21 for -12 yards (91-K.Turner).
- (2:39) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right guard to PHI 27 for 6 yards (56-C.Rozeboom).
- (2:35) 10-B.Mann punts 55 yards to LA 18, Center-49-R.Lovato, downed by PHI-28-W.Shipley.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.27 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.70 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.27 pts |
| Outside run | -0.24 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.41 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.50 pts |
| Inside run | -0.51 pts |
| Quick out | -0.93 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.97 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.00 pts |
| QB keep | -1.13 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.23 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.46 pts |
| Play action | -2.59 pts |
| Curl route | -2.87 pts |
| End-around | -4.94 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.11 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.98 pts |
| Deep post | -8.58 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.80 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.70 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.