Ravens vs Bills — Week 20, 2024
The Ravens took over trailing 27-19 with 3:23 left, 1st & 10 at their own 12, 1 timeout in hand, against the Bills.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 25, Bills 27. Bills won 27-25 — the drive scored.
Playoff football. Ravens ball, down 8 — touchdown plus the two-pointer ties it. At their own 12, 3:23 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 5.0% for Ravens. Our model starts at 6.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:23) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass incomplete deep left to 80-I.Likely. BUF-7-Ta.Johnson was injured during the play.
- (3:18) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson scrambles right end pushed ob at BAL 20 for 8 yards (40-V.Miller).
- (3:10) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 43-J.Hill to BAL 23 for 3 yards (39-C.Lewis).
- (2:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 7-R.Bateman to BAL 26 for 3 yards (50-G.Rousseau). BAL-7-R.Bateman was injured during the play.
- (2:14) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short middle to 16-T.Wallace to BUF 47 for 27 yards (39-C.Lewis; 24-C.Bishop) [58-M.Milano]. FUMBLES (39-C.Lewis), and recovers at BUF 47. ** Injury Update: BUF-7-Ta.Johnson has returned to the game.
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 43-J.Hill pushed ob at BUF 43 for 4 yards (39-C.Lewis).
- (1:52) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 89-M.Andrews pushed ob at BUF 24 for 19 yards (31-R.Douglas).
- (1:44) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass deep middle to 80-I.Likely for 24 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
- TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 8-L.Jackson pass to 89-M.Andrews is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS. ** Injury Update: BAL-7-R.Bateman has returned to the game.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (-0.13 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-1.07 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | -0.13 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.23 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.32 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.44 pts |
| Deep post | -0.45 pts |
| QB keep | -0.50 pts |
| Quick out | -0.53 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.54 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.57 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.62 pts |
| Play action | -0.63 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.68 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.70 pts |
| Spike it | -0.78 pts |
| Inside run | -1.00 pts |
| Outside run | -1.05 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.07 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.