Commanders vs Buccaneers — Week 19, 2024
The Commanders took over tied at 20 with 4:41 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Buccaneers.
What really happened
Final: Commanders 23, Buccaneers 20. Commanders won 23-20 — the drive scored.
Playoff football. Commanders ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 30, 4:41 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 47.7% for Commanders. Our model starts at 55.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:41) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin to WAS 35 for 5 yards (32-J.Hayes).
- (4:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson right tackle to WAS 34 for -1 yards (0-Y.Diaby, 31-A.Winfield).
- (3:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass deep middle to 2-D.Brown to TB 45 for 21 yards (31-A.Winfield; 32-J.Hayes).
- (2:33) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler left guard to TB 45 for no gain (90-L.Hall; 96-G.Gaines).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 30-A.Ekeler to TB 27 for 18 yards (27-Z.McCollum; 32-J.Hayes).
- (1:41) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler up the middle to TB 19 for 8 yards (98-A.Nelson; 54-L.David).
- (:59) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler right guard to TB 19 for no gain (90-L.Hall).
- (:55) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels right end to TB 15 for 4 yards (90-L.Hall). TB-54-L.David was injured during the play.
- (:40) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels kneels to TB 19 for -4 yards.
- (:03) 47-Z.Gonzalez 37 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-T.Ott, Holder-10-T.Way.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+0.79 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-3.30 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +0.79 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.62 pts |
| QB keep | +0.59 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.42 pts |
| Curl route | +0.13 pts |
| Quick out | +0.09 pts |
| Outside run | +0.03 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.03 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.28 pts |
| Play action | -0.41 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.66 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.68 pts |
| Inside run | -0.79 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.36 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.21 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.58 pts |
| Spike it | -2.92 pts |
| Deep post | -3.30 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.