Commanders vs Cowboys — Week 18, 2024
The Commanders took over trailing 19-16 with 3:18 left, 1st & 10 at their own 9, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Cowboys.
What really happened
Final: Commanders 23, Cowboys 19. Commanders won 23-19 — the drive scored.
Commanders ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. Backed up at their own 9, 3:18 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 26.1% for Commanders. Our model starts at 29.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:18) (Shotgun) 8-B.Robinson up the middle to WAS 15 for 6 yards (50-E.Kendricks; 97-O.Odighizuwa).
- (2:34) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-M.Mariota pass incomplete deep right to 17-T.McLaurin.
- (2:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-M.Mariota pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin to WAS 36 for 6 yards (2-J.Lewis).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 18-M.Mariota pass short right to 17-T.McLaurin to WAS 42 for 6 yards (26-D.Bland).
- (1:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler left end pushed ob at WAS 37 for no gain (50-E.Kendricks).
- (1:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-M.Mariota pass short middle to 17-T.McLaurin to 50 for 13 yards (26-D.Bland).
- (:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-M.Mariota scrambles left end to DAL 49 for 1 yard (99-C.Golston, 50-E.Kendricks).
- (:33) (Shotgun) 18-M.Mariota left tackle to DAL 16 for 33 yards (28-M.Hooker).
- (:25) (Shotgun) 18-M.Mariota pass short left to 86-Z.Ertz to DAL 5 for 11 yards (28-M.Hooker).
- (:07) (No Huddle) 18-M.Mariota spiked the ball to stop the clock.
- (:06) (Shotgun) 18-M.Mariota pass short left to 17-T.McLaurin for 5 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB sneak (-1.14 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-2.51 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB sneak | -1.14 pts |
| Pull RPO | -1.17 pts |
| Curl route | -1.18 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.43 pts |
| Deep post | -1.46 pts |
| Quick out | -1.53 pts |
| QB keep | -1.54 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.58 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.63 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.74 pts |
| Play action | -1.77 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.97 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.14 pts |
| Outside run | -2.17 pts |
| Inside run | -2.20 pts |
| Spike it | -2.47 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.51 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.