Colts vs Texans — Week 8, 2024
The Colts took over trailing 23-20 with 3:05 left, 1st & 10 at their own 18, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Colts 20, Texans 23. Texans won 23-20 — the drive turned it over.
Colts ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 18, 3:05 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 27.9% for Colts. Our model starts at 28.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:05) (Shotgun) 28-J.Taylor left end to IND 18 for no gain (51-W.Anderson).
- (2:28) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson pass incomplete short left to 83-K.Granson.
- (2:25) (Shotgun) 5-A.Richardson sacked at IND 5 for -8 yards (55-D.Hunter).
- (2:00) 8-R.Sanchez punts 47 yards to HOU 48, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 2-R.Woods. PENALTY on HOU-17-K.Boyd, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at HOU 48.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.09 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.45 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.09 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.80 pts |
| Deep post | +0.78 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.70 pts |
| Play action | +0.60 pts |
| QB keep | +0.21 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.04 pts |
| Quick out | +0.02 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.07 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.08 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.36 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.86 pts |
| Outside run | -1.22 pts |
| QB sneak | -1.28 pts |
| Inside run | -1.80 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -2.05 pts |
| Spike it | -2.45 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.