Patriots vs Jets — Week 8, 2024
The Patriots took over trailing 22-17 with 2:57 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Jets.
What really happened
Final: Patriots 25, Jets 22. Patriots won 25-22 — the drive scored.
Patriots ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 30, 2:57 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 25.8% for Patriots. Our model starts at 19.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:57) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right to 85-H.Henry.
- (2:53) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 85-H.Henry to NE 42 for 12 yards (23-I.Oliver).
- (2:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete deep right to 84-K.Bourne.
- (2:23) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 38-R.Stevenson to NE 43 for 1 yard (30-M.Carter).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett scrambles right end to NYJ 43 for 14 yards (56-Qi.Williams; 4-D.Reed). NYJ-95-Q.Williams was injured during the play.
- (1:41) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right to 3-D.Douglas.
- (1:36) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass incomplete short right. ** Injury Update: NYJ-95-Q.Williams has returned to the game.
- (1:29) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass deep right to 9-K.Boutte to NYJ 9 for 34 yards (1-A.Gardner).
- (1:14) (Shotgun) 38-R.Stevenson right guard to NYJ 7 for 2 yards (58-E.Watts; 23-I.Oliver).
- (:41) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short left to 38-R.Stevenson pushed ob at NYJ 5 for 2 yards (23-I.Oliver).
- (:32) (Shotgun) 7-J.Brissett pass short right to 9-K.Boutte to NYJ 1 for 4 yards (4-D.Reed).
- (:25) 62-S.Sow and 72-Z.Thomas reported in as eligible. 38-R.Stevenson up the middle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. The Replay Official reviewed the runner broke the plane ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.46 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.89 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.46 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.32 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.07 pts |
| QB keep | +0.89 pts |
| Quick out | +0.71 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.63 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.33 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.18 pts |
| Play action | -0.25 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.52 pts |
| Deep post | -0.54 pts |
| Outside run | -0.74 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.88 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.92 pts |
| Inside run | -1.24 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.41 pts |
| Spike it | -1.89 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.