Vikings vs Seahawks — Week 16, 2024
The Vikings took over trailing 24-20 with 4:21 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Seahawks.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 27, Seahawks 24. Vikings won 27-24 — the drive scored.
Vikings ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 30, 4:21 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 28.4% for Vikings. Our model starts at 29.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:21) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass short right to 18-J.Jefferson ran ob at MIN 37 for 12 yards (48-T.Knight) [10-U.Nwosu].
- (4:15) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold scrambles left end ran ob at MIN 46 for 9 yards (29-J.Jobe).
- (4:08) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete short middle to 18-J.Jefferson [90-Ja.Reed].
- (3:58) 14-S.Darnold pass deep left to 18-J.Jefferson for 39 yards, TOUCHDOWN [55-D.Jones].
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.15 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.45 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.15 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.98 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.91 pts |
| QB keep | +0.86 pts |
| Play action | +0.39 pts |
| Quick out | +0.35 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.25 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.04 pts |
| Deep post | -0.22 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.48 pts |
| Outside run | -0.54 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.55 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.59 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.62 pts |
| Inside run | -1.18 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.46 pts |
| Spike it | -2.45 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.