Rams vs Seahawks — Week 18, 2024
The Rams took over trailing 30-25 with 3:19 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Seahawks.
What really happened
Final: Rams 25, Seahawks 30. Seahawks won 30-25 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Rams ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 30, 3:19 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 26.0% for Rams. Our model starts at 21.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:19) 11-J.Garoppolo pass short left intended for 18-T.Johnson INTERCEPTED by 23-A.Burns at LA 42. 23-A.Burns to LA 35 for 7 yards (15-D.Robinson). The Replay Official reviewed the interception ruling, and the play was REVERSED. 11-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short left to 18-T.Johnson (23-A.Burns).
- (3:15) (Shotgun) 20-R.Rivers right tackle to LA 34 for 4 yards (53-B.Mafe).
- (2:39) (Shotgun) 11-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short left to 20-R.Rivers.
- (2:35) (Shotgun) 11-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 89-T.Higbee to SEA 49 for 17 yards (13-E.Jones; 2-R.Jenkins) [90-Ja.Reed].
- (2:10) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 11-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 89-T.Higbee to SEA 43 for 6 yards (20-J.Love, 13-E.Jones).
- (2:00) 11-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 20-R.Rivers ran ob at SEA 29 for 14 yards (8-C.Bryant).
- (1:53) 11-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 89-T.Higbee to SEA 25 for 4 yards (21-D.Witherspoon; 48-T.Knight).
- (1:16) 11-J.Garoppolo pass short left to 18-T.Johnson pushed ob at SEA 16 for 9 yards (28-N.Pritchett).
- (1:10) 11-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short left to 15-D.Robinson (20-J.Love) [58-D.Hall].
- (1:06) (Shotgun) 11-J.Garoppolo pass short right to 18-T.Johnson to SEA 14 for 2 yards (10-U.Nwosu).
- (:34) (Shotgun) 11-J.Garoppolo pass short middle to 5-T.Atwell to SEA 9 for 5 yards (28-N.Pritchett).
- (:21) (Shotgun) 11-J.Garoppolo pass incomplete short left to 88-J.Whittington.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.40 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.01 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.40 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.04 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.01 pts |
| QB keep | +0.88 pts |
| Deep post | +0.70 pts |
| Play action | +0.60 pts |
| Quick out | +0.43 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.34 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.07 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.05 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.02 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.43 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.55 pts |
| Outside run | -0.74 pts |
| Inside run | -1.26 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.45 pts |
| Spike it | -2.01 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.