Falcons vs Steelers — Week 1, 2024
The Falcons took over trailing 15-10 with 3:20 left, 1st & 10 at their own 40, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 10, Steelers 18. Steelers won 18-10 — the drive turnover.
Falcons ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 40, 3:20 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 27.9% for Falcons. Our model starts at 24.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:20) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson left end to PIT 47 for 13 yards (25-D.Elliott; 56-A.Highsmith).
- (2:47) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left intended for 34-R.McCloud INTERCEPTED by 26-D.Jackson at PIT 33. 26-D.Jackson to ATL 18 for 49 yards (67-D.Dalman).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.52 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.24 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.52 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.16 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.14 pts |
| QB keep | +1.00 pts |
| Play action | +0.66 pts |
| Deep post | +0.59 pts |
| Quick out | +0.50 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.40 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.08 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.00 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.07 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.45 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.58 pts |
| Outside run | -0.68 pts |
| Inside run | -1.29 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.51 pts |
| Spike it | -2.24 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.