Bears vs Commanders — Week 8, 2024
The Bears took over trailing 12-7 with 4:21 left, 1st & 10 at their own 38, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Commanders.
What really happened
Final: Bears 15, Commanders 18. Commanders won 18-15 — the drive scored.
Bears ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 38, 4:21 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 25.8% for Bears. Our model starts at 26.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:21) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift up the middle to CHI 38 for no gain (54-B.Wagner). ** Injury Update: CHI-2-D.Moore has returned to the game.
- (3:55) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete deep right [95-J.Newton].
- (3:49) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 15-R.Odunze to WAS 46 for 16 yards (0-M.Sainristil).
- (3:21) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 23-R.Johnson left guard to WAS 41 for 5 yards (1-N.Igbinoghene).
- (2:59) (No Huddle) 18-C.Williams pass short right to 13-K.Allen to WAS 19 for 22 yards (20-Q.Martin).
- (2:11) (Shotgun) 4-D.Swift up the middle to WAS 17 for 2 yards (54-B.Wagner).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams right end to WAS 14 for 3 yards (94-D.Payne).
- (1:19) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams up the middle to WAS 12 for 2 yards (54-B.Wagner; 94-D.Payne).
- (:31) 18-C.Williams pass incomplete short left to 2-D.Moore (0-M.Sainristil).
- (:27) 23-R.Johnson right guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
- TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 18-C.Williams pass to 85-C.Kmet is complete. ATTEMPT SUCCEEDS.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.19 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.28 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.19 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.95 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.91 pts |
| QB keep | +0.85 pts |
| Play action | +0.44 pts |
| Quick out | +0.36 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.26 pts |
| Deep post | +0.05 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.02 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.31 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.41 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.51 pts |
| Outside run | -0.56 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.59 pts |
| Inside run | -1.16 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.40 pts |
| Spike it | -2.28 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.