Saints vs Commanders — Week 15, 2024

What really happened

Final: Saints 19, Commanders 20. Commanders won 20-19 — the drive scored.

Saints ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 44, 1:55 on the clock.

nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 12.5% for Saints. Our model starts at 10.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.

The real drive, snap by snap

1. (1:55) (Shotgun) 25-K.Miller right guard to WAS 44 for 12 yards (54-B.Wagner). ** Injury Update: NO-10-M.Valdes-Scantling has returned to the game.
2. (1:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler pass incomplete short right to 83-J.Johnson (22-D.Forrest). The Replay Official reviewed the incomplete pass ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler pass short right to 83-J.Johnson pushed ob at WAS 41 for 3 yards (22-D.Forrest).
3. (1:21) (Shotgun) 25-K.Miller right guard to WAS 35 for 6 yards (54-B.Wagner; 0-M.Sainristil).
4. (1:04) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler pass short right to 81-K.Austin ran ob at WAS 27 for 8 yards (0-M.Sainristil).
5. (1:00) (Shotgun) 25-K.Miller left tackle to WAS 15 for 12 yards (92-D.Armstrong; 22-D.Forrest).
6. (:41) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 25-K.Miller left guard to WAS 17 for -2 yards (92-D.Armstrong).
7. (:38) (Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler pass short middle to 83-J.Johnson to WAS 8 for 9 yards (22-D.Forrest).
8. (:22) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler pass incomplete short left to 17-D.Pettis.
9. (:17) (Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler pass short right to 87-F.Moreau to WAS 1 for 7 yards (1-N.Igbinoghene; 0-M.Sainristil).
10. (:04) (No Huddle) 18-S.Rattler spiked the ball to stop the clock.
11. (:03) (Shotgun) 18-S.Rattler pass short right to 87-F.Moreau for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN.
12. TWO-POINT CONVERSION ATTEMPT. 18-S.Rattler pass to 83-J.Johnson is incomplete. ATTEMPT FAILS.

The opening call, by win probability

At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+1.20 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.17 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.

This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.