Jaguars vs Colts — Week 18, 2024
The Jaguars took over trailing 23-20 with 3:52 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Colts.
What really happened
Final: Jaguars 23, Colts 23. Tied 23-23 — the drive scored.
Jaguars ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 30, 3:52 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 31.2% for Jaguars. Our model starts at 35.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:52) (Shotgun) 1-T.Etienne left guard to JAX 32 for 2 yards (90-G.Stewart; 20-N.Cross).
- (3:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 1-T.Etienne to JAX 46 for 14 yards (44-Z.Franklin; 23-K.Moore) [54-D.Odeyingbo].
- (3:02) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 10-M.Jones scrambles left tackle to IND 42 for 12 yards (20-N.Cross).
- (2:25) (Shotgun) 4-T.Bigsby up the middle to IND 40 for 2 yards (54-D.Odeyingbo; 23-K.Moore).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass incomplete short left to 87-J.Reynolds (45-E.Speed).
- (1:56) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short right to 7-B.Thomas pushed ob at IND 35 for 5 yards (33-S.Womack, 45-E.Speed).
- (1:49) 39-C.Little 53 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-R.Matiscik, Holder-9-L.Cooke.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.30 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.71 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.30 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.17 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.08 pts |
| QB keep | +1.03 pts |
| Play action | +0.47 pts |
| Quick out | +0.45 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.34 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.02 pts |
| Outside run | -0.43 pts |
| Deep post | -0.49 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.55 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.61 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.66 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.77 pts |
| Inside run | -1.18 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.52 pts |
| Spike it | -2.71 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.