Cardinals vs Panthers — Week 16, 2024
The Cardinals took over trailing 30-27 with 4:52 left, 1st & 10 at their own 38, 1 timeout in hand, against the Panthers.
What really happened
Final: Cardinals 30, Panthers 30. Tied 30-30 — the drive turnover.
Cardinals ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 38, 4:52 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 34.3% for Cardinals. Our model starts at 36.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:45) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass short left to 22-M.Carter to CAR 49 for -1 yards (26-C.Smith-Wade).
- (4:04) (Shotgun) 22-M.Carter left end to CAR 49 for no gain (98-D.Wonnum; 94-A.Robinson).
- (3:20) (Shotgun) 1-K.Murray pass deep right intended for 14-Mi.Wilson INTERCEPTED by 36-D.Richardson at CAR 11. 36-D.Richardson ran ob at CAR 14 for 3 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB keep (+1.15 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.72 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB keep | +1.15 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.95 pts |
| Curl route | +0.90 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.79 pts |
| Quick out | +0.30 pts |
| Play action | +0.21 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.19 pts |
| Outside run | +0.04 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.09 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.47 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.60 pts |
| Inside run | -0.75 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.97 pts |
| Deep post | -1.08 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.10 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.15 pts |
| Spike it | -2.72 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.