Cowboys vs Steelers — Week 5, 2024

What really happened

Final: Cowboys 20, Steelers 17. Cowboys won 20-17 — the drive scored.

Cowboys ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 30, 4:56 on the clock.

nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 29.1% for Cowboys. Our model starts at 29.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.

The real drive, snap by snap

1. (4:56) (Shotgun) 23-R.Dowdle right guard to DAL 35 for 5 yards (24-J.Porter; 41-P.Wilson). ** Injury Update: DAL-70-Z.Martin has returned to the game.
2. (4:24) (Shotgun) 23-R.Dowdle right guard to DAL 43 for 8 yards (41-P.Wilson; 25-D.Elliott).
3. (3:57) 23-R.Dowdle left guard to DAL 43 for no gain (50-E.Roberts, 94-D.Lowry).
4. (3:21) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 88-C.Lamb to PIT 48 for 9 yards (24-J.Porter).
5. (3:16) (No Huddle) 15-E.Elliott right end to PIT 47 for 1 yard (90-T.Watt).
6. (2:38) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 1-J.Tolbert to PIT 40 for 7 yards (24-J.Porter).
7. (2:04) (Shotgun) 23-R.Dowdle right guard to PIT 33 for 7 yards (6-P.Queen; 95-K.Benton).
8. (2:00) (Shotgun) 23-R.Dowdle right tackle to PIT 32 for 1 yard (97-Ca.Heyward; 25-D.Elliott).
9. (1:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short middle to 15-E.Elliott.
10. (1:26) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 87-J.Ferguson to PIT 22 for 10 yards (39-M.Fitzpatrick).
11. (1:01) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 40-H.Luepke to PIT 4 for 18 yards (6-P.Queen) [90-T.Watt].
12. (:52) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott scrambles left end pushed ob at PIT 1 for 3 yards (39-M.Fitzpatrick). The Replay Official reviewed the runner was out of bounds ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott scrambles left end to PIT 1 for 3 yards (39-M.Fitzpatrick).

The opening call, by win probability

At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB keep (+1.02 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.47 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.

This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.