Panthers vs Buccaneers — Week 13, 2024

What really happened

Final: Panthers 23, Buccaneers 23. Tied 23-23 — the drive scored.

Panthers ball, down 4 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 40, 3:05 on the clock, no timeouts left.

nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 32.2% for Panthers. Our model starts at 27.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.

The real drive, snap by snap

1. (3:05) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 82-T.Tremble to CAR 40 for no gain (29-C.Izien).
2. (2:27) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 83-D.Moore to CAR 47 for 7 yards (98-A.Nelson).
3. (2:00) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard up the middle to 50 for 3 yards (98-A.Nelson).
4. (1:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short left to 83-D.Moore to TB 41 for 9 yards (37-T.Thomas; 54-L.David).
5. (1:14) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete deep left to 83-D.Moore.
6. (1:10) (Shotgun) 30-C.Hubbard left end to TB 39 for 2 yards (0-Y.Diaby).
7. (:49) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass incomplete short left.
8. (:43) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass short right to 82-T.Tremble to TB 25 for 14 yards (37-T.Thomas) [31-A.Winfield].
9. (:36) (Shotgun) 9-B.Young pass deep right to 19-A.Thielen for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

The opening call, by win probability

At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.68 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.40 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.

This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.