Seahawks vs Patriots — Week 2, 2024

What really happened

Final: Seahawks 20, Patriots 20. Tied 20-20 — the drive scored.

Seahawks ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 38, 3:54 on the clock.

nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 32.0% for Seahawks. Our model starts at 37.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.

The real drive, snap by snap

1. (3:54) (Shotgun) 26-Z.Charbonnet up the middle to SEA 40 for 2 yards (95-D.Ekuale; 99-K.White).
2. (3:13) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 11-J.Smith-Njigba to SEA 47 for 7 yards (33-A.Jennings).
3. (2:35) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 26-Z.Charbonnet up the middle to NE 47 for 6 yards (95-D.Ekuale).
4. (2:09) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short middle to 26-Z.Charbonnet to NE 38 for 9 yards (50-R.McMillan).
5. (2:00) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 14-D.Metcalf ran ob at NE 24 for 14 yards.
6. (1:54) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass incomplete short right to 87-N.Fant.
7. (1:50) (Shotgun) 7-G.Smith pass short right to 14-D.Metcalf pushed ob at NE 15 for 9 yards (31-J.Jones). The Replay Official reviewed the short of the line to gain ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands.
8. (1:43) 7-G.Smith up the middle to NE 15 for no gain (50-R.McMillan; 33-A.Jennings).
9. (:58) 5-J.Myers 38 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-C.Stoll, Holder-4-M.Dickson.

The opening call, by win probability

At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.29 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.78 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.

This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.