Jaguars vs Vikings — Week 10, 2024
The Jaguars took over trailing 12-7 with 4:22 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Vikings.
What really happened
Final: Jaguars 7, Vikings 12. Vikings won 12-7 — the drive turnover.
Jaguars ball, down 5 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 30, 4:22 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 28.5% for Jaguars. Our model starts at 23.4%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:22) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass short left to 7-B.Thomas to JAX 32 for 2 yards (2-S.Gilmore).
- (3:47) (Shotgun) 10-M.Jones pass deep right intended for 0-G.Davis INTERCEPTED by 7-B.Murphy at JAX 49. 7-B.Murphy to JAX 47 for 2 yards (0-G.Davis).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.12 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.13 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.12 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.87 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.84 pts |
| QB keep | +0.76 pts |
| Play action | +0.40 pts |
| Quick out | +0.32 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.23 pts |
| Deep post | +0.15 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.04 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.26 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.33 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.50 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.57 pts |
| Outside run | -0.63 pts |
| Inside run | -1.17 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.38 pts |
| Spike it | -2.13 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.