Steelers vs Bengals — Week 18, 2024
The Steelers took over trailing 19-17 with 1:51 left, 1st & 10 at their own 24, 1 timeout in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Steelers 17, Bengals 19. Bengals won 19-17 — the drive turned it over on downs.
Steelers ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. At their own 24, 1:51 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 41.9% for Steelers. Our model starts at 35.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:51) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short right to 22-N.Harris to PIT 22 for -2 yards (59-A.Davis-Gaither) [99-M.Murphy]. ** Injury Update: PIT-22-N.Harris has returned to the game.
- (1:29) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short left to 88-P.Freiermuth to PIT 25 for 3 yards (21-M.Hilton).
- (1:08) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass short middle to 88-P.Freiermuth to PIT 42 for 17 yards (59-A.Davis-Gaither).
- (:46) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson scrambles right end to PIT 45 for 3 yards (21-M.Hilton).
- (:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson sacked at PIT 40 for -5 yards (91-T.Hendrickson).
- (:20) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete deep right to 14-G.Pickens [52-C.Johnson].
- (:15) (Shotgun) 3-R.Wilson pass incomplete short right to 88-P.Freiermuth.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+2.16 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.74 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +2.16 pts |
| QB keep | +1.92 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.76 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.73 pts |
| Play action | +1.09 pts |
| Quick out | +0.87 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.74 pts |
| Deep post | +0.55 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.36 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.07 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.05 pts |
| Outside run | -0.08 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.36 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.42 pts |
| Inside run | -1.02 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.33 pts |
| Spike it | -2.74 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.