Commanders vs Eagles — Week 16, 2024

What really happened

Final: Commanders 36, Eagles 33. Commanders won 36-33 — the drive turnover.

Commanders ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. At their own 35, 3:41 on the clock.

nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 44.3% for Commanders. Our model starts at 43.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.

The real drive, snap by snap

1. (3:41) (Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass incomplete short right to 87-J.Bates.
2. (3:36) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short left to 26-J.McNichols to WAS 40 for 5 yards (17-N.Dean).
3. (3:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 5-J.Daniels pass short middle intended for 12-L.McCaffrey INTERCEPTED by 32-R.Blankenship (2-D.Slay) [19-J.Sweat] at PHI 45. 32-R.Blankenship to WAS 27 for 28 yards (26-J.McNichols).

The opening call, by win probability

At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB keep (+1.46 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.92 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.

This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.