Chiefs vs Bengals — Week 2, 2024
The Chiefs took over trailing 25-23 with 2:35 left, 1st & 10 at their own 25, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 26, Bengals 25. Chiefs won 26-25 — the drive scored.
Chiefs ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. At their own 25, 2:35 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 42.3% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 39.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:35) (Shotgun) 10-I.Pacheco up the middle to KC 31 for 6 yards (57-G.Pratt; 24-V.Bell).
- (2:08) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 4-R.Rice to KC 41 for 10 yards (23-D.Hill).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-I.Pacheco up the middle to KC 42 for 1 yard (55-L.Wilson; 57-G.Pratt).
- (1:33) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short left.
- (1:27) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass short right to 34-S.Perine to KC 45 for 3 yards (94-S.Hubbard).
- (:38) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short left [57-G.Pratt].
- (:32) (Shotgun) 42-C.Steele left end to CIN 34 for 2 yards (24-V.Bell, 58-J.Ossai).
- (:18) 42-C.Steele right end to CIN 32 for 2 yards (23-D.Hill).
- (:03) 7-H.Butker 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-41-J.Winchester, Holder-14-M.Araiza.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.77 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.86 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.77 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.55 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.49 pts |
| QB keep | +1.38 pts |
| Play action | +0.79 pts |
| Quick out | +0.72 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.58 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.22 pts |
| Deep post | -0.23 pts |
| Outside run | -0.32 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.40 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.45 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.57 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.64 pts |
| Inside run | -1.19 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.56 pts |
| Spike it | -2.86 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.