Lions vs Rams — Week 1, 2024
The Lions took over trailing 20-17 with 4:30 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Rams.
What really happened
Final: Lions 20, Rams 20. Tied 20-20 — the drive turned it over.
Lions ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 30, 4:30 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 40.3% for Lions. Our model starts at 35.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:30) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown pushed ob at DET 35 for 5 yards (14-C.Durant).
- (4:26) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete short right to 9-J.Williams [14-C.Durant].
- (4:22) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass incomplete deep left to 9-J.Williams (14-C.Durant).
- (4:17) 3-J.Fox punts 54 yards to LA 11, Center-49-H.Hatten, fair catch by 23-K.Williams.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.02 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.72 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.02 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.00 pts |
| QB keep | +0.88 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.87 pts |
| Quick out | +0.33 pts |
| Play action | +0.27 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.21 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.08 pts |
| Outside run | -0.40 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.61 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.67 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.85 pts |
| Deep post | -0.87 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.02 pts |
| Inside run | -1.13 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.48 pts |
| Spike it | -2.72 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.