Lions vs Vikings — Week 7, 2024
The Lions took over trailing 29-28 with 2:32 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Vikings.
What really happened
Final: Lions 31, Vikings 29. Lions won 31-29 — the drive scored.
Lions ball, down 1 — a field goal wins it. At their own 30, 2:32 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 44.2% for Lions. Our model starts at 49.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:32) 26-J.Gibbs right guard to DET 34 for 4 yards (0-I.Pace; 44-J.Metellus).
- (2:00) 26-J.Gibbs right tackle to DET 48 for 14 yards (7-B.Murphy).
- (1:25) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 26-J.Gibbs pushed ob at MIN 36 for 16 yards (44-J.Metellus).
- (1:18) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to MIN 22 for 14 yards (22-H.Smith; 2-S.Gilmore).
- (1:07) 26-J.Gibbs right end to MIN 22 for no gain (90-J.Bullard; 58-J.Greenard).
- (1:02) 16-J.Goff kneels to MIN 25 for -3 yards.
- (1:00) 16-J.Goff kneels to MIN 26 for -1 yards.
- (:19) 39-J.Bates 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB keep (+1.75 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.99 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB keep | +1.75 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.57 pts |
| Curl route | +1.45 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.39 pts |
| Quick out | +0.70 pts |
| Play action | +0.57 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.55 pts |
| Outside run | +0.39 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.21 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.41 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.41 pts |
| Inside run | -0.64 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.01 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.12 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.27 pts |
| Deep post | -1.41 pts |
| Spike it | -2.99 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.