Buccaneers vs 49ers — Week 10, 2024
The Buccaneers took over trailing 20-17 with 3:09 left, 1st & 10 at their own 34, 3 timeouts in hand, against the 49ers.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 20, 49ers 23. 49ers won 23-20 — the drive scored.
Buccaneers ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At their own 34, 3:09 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 39.5% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 36.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:09) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 1-R.White to TB 40 for 6 yards (56-L.Floyd).
- (2:30) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield FUMBLES (Aborted) at TB 36, and recovers at TB 36. 6-B.Mayfield to TB 37 for 1 yard. FUMBLES, touched at TB 38, recovered by TB-7-B.Irving at TB 37.
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short left to 17-S.Shepard.
- (1:57) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 1-R.White to TB 45 for 8 yards (54-F.Warner).
- (1:27) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield scrambles right end ran ob at SF 47 for 3 yards (91-S.Okuayinonu).
- (1:20) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to 1-R.White.
- (1:14) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short right to 1-R.White pushed ob at SF 27 for 5 yards (27-J.Brown). PENALTY on SF-99-M.Collins, Roughing the Passer, 14 yards, enforced at SF 27.
- (:59) (Shotgun) 1-R.White left guard to SF 5 for 3 yards (97-N.Bosa).
- (:53) 1-R.White up the middle to SF 8 for -3 yards (69-E.Anderson).
- (:48) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete short right to 18-R.Jarrett (33-R.Ya-Sin).
- (:44) 4-C.McLaughlin 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-86-E.Deckers, Holder-16-T.Gill.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+1.61 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.76 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +1.61 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.38 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.33 pts |
| QB keep | +1.23 pts |
| Play action | +0.68 pts |
| Quick out | +0.61 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.48 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.14 pts |
| Deep post | -0.17 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.40 pts |
| Outside run | -0.42 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.49 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.55 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.65 pts |
| Inside run | -1.22 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.56 pts |
| Spike it | -2.76 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.