Bengals vs Steelers — Week 18, 2024
The Bengals took over leading 19-17 with 2:29 left, 1st & 10 at their own 44, 1 timeout in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Bengals 19, Steelers 17. Bengals won 19-17 — the drive turned it over.
Bengals ball, up 2 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 44, 2:29 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 79.1% for Bengals. Our model starts at 79.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:29) (Shotgun) 34-K.Herbert up the middle to CIN 46 for 2 yards (95-K.Benton; 56-A.Highsmith).
- (2:25) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase to PIT 49 for 5 yards (6-P.Queen; 27-C.Trice).
- (2:19) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow sacked at CIN 40 for -11 yards (95-K.Benton).
- (2:00) 8-R.Rehkow punts 42 yards to PIT 18, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 19-C.Austin to PIT 24 for 6 yards (48-C.Adomitis).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.57 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.37 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.57 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.54 pts |
| Outside run | -0.00 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.02 pts |
| Quick out | -0.11 pts |
| QB keep | -0.17 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.20 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.32 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.36 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.60 pts |
| Inside run | -0.63 pts |
| Play action | -0.86 pts |
| Curl route | -1.01 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.45 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.18 pts |
| End-around | -3.65 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.84 pts |
| Deep post | -5.53 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.74 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.37 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.