Chiefs vs Falcons — Week 3, 2024
The Chiefs took over leading 22-17 with 4:04 left, 1st & 10 at their own 6, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Falcons.
What really happened
Final: Chiefs 22, Falcons 17. Chiefs won 22-17 — the drive turned it over.
Chiefs ball, up 5 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. Backed up at their own 6, 4:04 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 78.8% for Chiefs. Our model starts at 84.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:04) 42-C.Steele right tackle to KC 8 for 2 yards (90-D.Onyemata).
- (3:24) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes scrambles left end to KC 14 for 6 yards (55-K.Elliss).
- (2:37) (Shotgun) 15-P.Mahomes pass incomplete short left to 1-X.Worthy.
- (2:33) 14-M.Araiza punts 51 yards to ATL 35, Center-41-J.Winchester, fair catch by 26-A.Williams.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.81 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-10.22 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.81 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.85 pts |
| Outside run | -0.89 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.01 pts |
| Inside run | -1.08 pts |
| Quick slant | -1.31 pts |
| Quick out | -1.58 pts |
| Quick hook | -1.62 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.63 pts |
| QB keep | -1.91 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.97 pts |
| Pull RPO | -2.05 pts |
| Play action | -3.23 pts |
| Curl route | -3.51 pts |
| End-around | -5.07 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.19 pts |
| Deep corner | -5.98 pts |
| Deep post | -7.85 pts |
| Receiver pass | -8.71 pts |
| Flea flicker | -10.22 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.