Eagles vs Browns — Week 6, 2024
The Eagles took over leading 20-16 with 3:48 left, 1st & 10 at their own 24, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Eagles 20, Browns 16. Eagles won 20-16 — the drive time expired.
Eagles ball, up 4 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 24, 3:48 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 80.0% for Eagles. Our model starts at 81.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:48) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley left tackle to PHI 28 for 4 yards (93-S.Harris, 30-D.Bush).
- (3:05) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts left guard to PHI 32 for 4 yards (43-M.Diabate; 30-D.Bush).
- (3:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts right end to PHI 38 for 6 yards (99-Z.Smith).
- (2:55) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley left guard to PHI 39 for 1 yard (93-S.Harris).
- (2:14) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass short left to 83-J.Dotson ran ob at PHI 49 for 10 yards.
- (2:08) (Shotgun) 26-S.Barkley right guard to PHI 48 for -1 yards (51-M.Hall, 43-M.Diabate).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 1-J.Hurts pass deep left to 11-A.Brown to CLE 12 for 40 yards (0-G.Newsome).
- (1:49) 1-J.Hurts kneels to CLE 13 for -1 yards.
- (1:09) 1-J.Hurts kneels to CLE 14 for -1 yards.
- (:33) 1-J.Hurts kneels to CLE 15 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.65 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-9.11 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.65 pts |
| Outside run | +0.11 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.06 pts |
| QB keep | -0.39 pts |
| Inside run | -0.43 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.46 pts |
| Quick out | -0.49 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.49 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.56 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.57 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.68 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.28 pts |
| Curl route | -1.74 pts |
| Play action | -1.75 pts |
| End-around | -4.06 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -4.16 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.86 pts |
| Deep post | -6.88 pts |
| Receiver pass | -7.41 pts |
| Flea flicker | -9.11 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.