Cowboys vs Buccaneers — Week 16, 2024
The Cowboys took over leading 26-24 with 2:36 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Buccaneers.
What really happened
Final: Cowboys 26, Buccaneers 24. Cowboys won 26-24 — the drive turned it over.
Cowboys ball, up 2 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 30, 2:36 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 80.0% for Cowboys. Our model starts at 74.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:36) 9-K.Turpin left end to DAL 29 for -1 yards (23-T.Smith).
- (2:31) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short right to 88-C.Lamb to DAL 34 for 5 yards (23-T.Smith).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 10-C.Rush pass short left to 87-J.Ferguson to DAL 38 for 4 yards (50-V.Vea).
- (1:52) 5-B.Anger punts 52 yards to TB 10, Center-44-T.Sieg. 10-T.Palmer pushed ob at TB 26 for 16 yards (86-L.Schoonmaker).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.40 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-7.72 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.40 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.74 pts |
| Outside run | +0.38 pts |
| QB keep | +0.38 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.23 pts |
| Quick out | +0.04 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.07 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.25 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.35 pts |
| Inside run | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.47 pts |
| Curl route | -0.58 pts |
| Play action | -0.88 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.14 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.18 pts |
| End-around | -3.38 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.77 pts |
| Deep post | -5.32 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.20 pts |
| Flea flicker | -7.72 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.