Colts vs Steelers — Week 4, 2024
The Colts took over leading 27-24 with 3:40 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Steelers.
What really happened
Final: Colts 27, Steelers 24. Colts won 27-24 — the drive turned it over.
Colts ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 30, 3:40 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 79.5% for Colts. Our model starts at 78.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:40) 27-T.Sermon left tackle to IND 33 for 3 yards (41-P.Wilson).
- (2:58) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco sacked at IND 25 for -8 yards (sack split by 97-Ca.Heyward and 99-L.Ogunjobi).
- (2:52) (Shotgun) 15-J.Flacco pass incomplete deep right to 10-A.Mitchell.
- (2:46) 8-R.Sanchez punts 58 yards to PIT 17, Center-46-L.Rhodes, fair catch by 19-C.Austin.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.63 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.59 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.63 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.27 pts |
| Outside run | +0.20 pts |
| QB keep | -0.13 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.32 pts |
| Quick out | -0.33 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.41 pts |
| Inside run | -0.42 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.45 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.50 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.55 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.23 pts |
| Curl route | -1.35 pts |
| Play action | -1.46 pts |
| End-around | -3.80 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.82 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.48 pts |
| Deep post | -6.32 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.96 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.59 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.