Raiders vs Browns — Week 4, 2024
The Raiders took over leading 20-16 with 4:55 left, 1st & 10 at their own 20, 1 timeout in hand, against the Browns.
What really happened
Final: Raiders 20, Browns 16. Raiders won 20-16 — the drive turned it over.
Raiders ball, up 4 — a field goal pushes them to a touchdown. At their own 20, 4:55 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 78.9% for Raiders. Our model starts at 76.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:55) 3-Z.White left tackle to LV 15 for -5 yards (6-J.Owusu-Koramoah).
- (4:17) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass incomplete short middle to 16-J.Meyers (21-D.Ward).
- (4:13) (Shotgun) 15-G.Minshew pass short left to 11-T.Tucker to LV 15 for no gain (54-O.Okoronkwo, 91-A.Wright).
- (3:29) 6-A.Cole punts 67 yards to CLE 18, Center-50-J.Bobenmoyer. 11-J.Proche to CLE 31 for 13 yards (59-L.Masterson).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.85 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.53 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.85 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.05 pts |
| Outside run | +0.02 pts |
| QB keep | -0.33 pts |
| Quick out | -0.51 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.55 pts |
| Inside run | -0.58 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.60 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.60 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.63 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.73 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.36 pts |
| Curl route | -1.56 pts |
| Play action | -1.65 pts |
| End-around | -3.85 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.94 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.58 pts |
| Deep post | -6.35 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.95 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.53 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.