Packers vs Bears — Week 18, 2024
The Packers took over trailing 21-19 with 1:49 left, 1st & 10 at the Bears 43, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Bears.
What really happened
Final: Packers 22, Bears 24. Bears won 24-22 — the drive scored.
Packers ball, down 2 — a field goal wins it. In Bears territory, 1:49 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 56.7% for Packers. Our model starts at 55.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:49) (Shotgun) 2-M.Willis pass short left to 18-M.Heath to CHI 37 for 6 yards (6-K.Gordon).
- (1:31) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 31-Em.Wilson up the middle to CHI 35 for 2 yards (95-D.Walker; 93-B.Cowart).
- (1:05) (No Huddle) 31-Em.Wilson up the middle to CHI 37 for -2 yards (95-D.Walker, 49-T.Edmunds).
- (:58) 17-B.McManus 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-42-M.Orzech, Holder-19-D.Whelan.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was QB keep (+1.82 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.97 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| QB keep | +1.82 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.68 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.46 pts |
| Curl route | +1.43 pts |
| Quick out | +0.76 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.61 pts |
| Play action | +0.54 pts |
| Outside run | +0.35 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.25 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.35 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.40 pts |
| Inside run | -0.71 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.22 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.25 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.55 pts |
| Deep post | -1.91 pts |
| Spike it | -2.97 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.