Bills vs Texans — Week 5, 2024
The Bills took over trailing 20-17 with 4:21 left, 1st & 10 at the Texans 15, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Bills 20, Texans 23. Texans won 23-20 — the drive scored.
Bills ball, down 3 — a field goal ties it. At the Texans 15, 4:21 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 55.2% for Bills. Our model starts at 58.5%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:21) 70-A.Anderson reported in as eligible. 4-J.Cook left tackle to HOU 15 for no gain (91-F.Fatukasi).
- (3:36) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short left to 4-J.Cook (23-E.Murray). ** Injury Update: BUF-17-J.Allen has returned to the game.
- (3:30) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 1-C.Samuel [0-A.Al-Shaair].
- (3:21) 2-T.Bass 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-8-S.Martin.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Field goal (+7.36 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-5.37 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Field goal | +7.36 pts |
| Quick slant | +1.06 pts |
| QB keep | +0.86 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.52 pts |
| Outside run | +0.34 pts |
| Quick out | +0.31 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.18 pts |
| Curl route | -0.03 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.06 pts |
| Play action | -0.15 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.48 pts |
| Inside run | -0.54 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.56 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.13 pts |
| Spike it | -2.85 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.88 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.30 pts |
| Deep post | -5.37 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.