Lions vs Packers — Week 14, 2024
The Lions took over tied at 31 with 3:38 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Packers.
What really happened
Final: Lions 34, Packers 31. Lions won 34-31 — the drive scored.
Lions ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 30, 3:38 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 57.8% for Lions. Our model starts at 58.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:38) 16-J.Goff pass deep left to 9-Ja.Williams ran ob at DET 49 for 19 yards.
- (3:33) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 17-T.Patrick to GB 40 for 11 yards (39-Z.Anderson; 21-E.Stokes).
- (2:48) 26-J.Gibbs right tackle to GB 39 for 1 yard (90-L.Van Ness; 57-B.Cox).
- (2:06) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 26-J.Gibbs pushed ob at GB 37 for 2 yards (58-I.McDuffie).
- (2:01) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short left to 26-J.Gibbs to GB 30 for 7 yards (95-D.Wyatt).
- (1:48) 5-D.Montgomery up the middle to GB 37 for 3 yards (52-R.Gary; 97-K.Clark).
- (1:42) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown to GB 20 for 17 yards (25-K.Nixon). The Replay Official reviewed the first down ruling, and the play was REVERSED. (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short middle to 14-A.St. Brown to GB 21 for 16 yards (25-K.Nixon).
- (1:27) 5-D.Montgomery right tackle to GB 21 for no gain (39-Z.Anderson).
- (:43) 5-D.Montgomery right tackle to GB 14 for 7 yards (57-B.Cox). GB-25-K.Nixon was injured during the play.
- (:17) 16-J.Goff left end to GB 17 for -3 yards.
- (:02) 39-J.Bates 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox. ** Injury Update: GB-25-K.Nixon has returned to the game.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.05 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.88 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.05 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.71 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.45 pts |
| Curl route | +0.42 pts |
| QB keep | +0.42 pts |
| Quick out | +0.29 pts |
| Play action | +0.26 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.16 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.11 pts |
| Outside run | -0.29 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.53 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.86 pts |
| Inside run | -1.09 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.52 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.70 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.91 pts |
| Deep post | -2.45 pts |
| Spike it | -2.88 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.