Bengals vs Cowboys — Week 14, 2024
The Bengals took over tied at 20 with 1:53 left, 1st & 10 at their own 43, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Cowboys.
What really happened
Final: Bengals 27, Cowboys 20. Bengals won 27-20 — the drive scored.
Bengals ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 43, 1:53 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 60.2% for Bengals. Our model starts at 67.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:53) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short left to 80-A.Iosivas ran ob at 50 for 7 yards.
- (1:49) (Shotgun) 30-C.Brown up the middle to DAL 40 for 10 yards (28-M.Hooker; 6-Do.Wilson).
- (1:09) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 1-J.Chase for 40 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.28 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-3.79 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.28 pts |
| QB keep | +0.97 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.88 pts |
| Quick out | +0.45 pts |
| Curl route | +0.44 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.39 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.32 pts |
| Outside run | +0.29 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.04 pts |
| Play action | -0.15 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.32 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.52 pts |
| Inside run | -0.61 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.29 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.26 pts |
| Spike it | -2.64 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.74 pts |
| Deep post | -3.79 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.