Ravens vs Raiders — Week 2, 2024
The Ravens took over tied at 23 with 3:54 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Raiders.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 23, Raiders 26. Raiders won 26-23 — the drive turned it over.
Ravens ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 30, 3:54 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 56.7% for Ravens. Our model starts at 56.9%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:54) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson sacked at BAL 21 for -9 yards (98-M.Crosby).
- (3:12) (Shotgun) 43-J.Hill left tackle to BAL 21 for no gain (41-R.Spillane; 7-T.Moehrig).
- (2:34) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short left to 43-J.Hill pushed ob at BAL 24 for 3 yards (20-I.Pola-Mao).
- (2:27) 11-J.Stout punts 24 yards to BAL 48, Center-46-N.Moore, out of bounds. PENALTY on BAL-25-K.Hollman, Player Out of Bounds on Kick, 5 yards, enforced at BAL 48.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.02 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-2.91 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.02 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.68 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.50 pts |
| Curl route | +0.41 pts |
| QB keep | +0.40 pts |
| Quick out | +0.26 pts |
| Play action | +0.25 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.13 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.13 pts |
| Outside run | -0.29 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.55 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.86 pts |
| Inside run | -1.09 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.49 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.68 pts |
| Deep corner | -1.86 pts |
| Deep post | -2.35 pts |
| Spike it | -2.91 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.