Lions vs Texans — Week 10, 2024
The Lions took over tied at 23 with 1:51 left, 1st & 10 at their own 48, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Lions 26, Texans 23. Lions won 26-23 — the drive scored.
Lions ball, even score — any score wins it. Near midfield, 1:51 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 62.2% for Lions. Our model starts at 68.6%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:51) 26-J.Gibbs left guard to HOU 48 for 4 yards (72-T.Togiai; 5-J.Pitre).
- (1:46) 26-J.Gibbs left end to HOU 48 for no gain (0-A.Al-Shaair).
- (1:40) (Shotgun) 16-J.Goff pass short right to 14-A.St. Brown to HOU 37 for 11 yards (0-A.Al-Shaair).
- (1:33) 26-J.Gibbs up the middle to HOU 35 for 2 yards (55-D.Hunter; 72-T.Togiai).
- (:49) 5-D.Montgomery up the middle to HOU 34 for 1 yard (55-D.Hunter; 5-J.Pitre).
- (:04) 39-J.Bates 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-H.Hatten, Holder-3-J.Fox.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.24 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-3.28 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.24 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.83 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.53 pts |
| QB keep | +0.51 pts |
| Quick out | +0.42 pts |
| Curl route | +0.34 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.29 pts |
| Play action | +0.22 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.03 pts |
| Outside run | -0.09 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.30 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.71 pts |
| Inside run | -0.91 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.61 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -1.83 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.33 pts |
| Spike it | -2.58 pts |
| Deep post | -3.28 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.