Bears vs Packers — Week 18, 2024
The Bears took over leading 21-19 with 4:22 left, 1st & 10 at their own 33, 1 timeout in hand, against the Packers.
What really happened
Final: Bears 24, Packers 22. Bears won 24-22 — the drive turnover.
Bears ball, up 2 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 33, 4:22 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 73.5% for Bears. Our model starts at 69.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:22) 4-D.Swift right end to CHI 35 for 2 yards (58-I.McDuffie; 53-A.Mosby).
- (3:40) (Shotgun) 2-D.Moore left end pushed ob at CHI 40 for 5 yards (27-K.Oladapo; 45-Er.Wilson).
- (3:33) (Shotgun) 18-C.Williams pass short middle to 2-D.Moore to CHI 46 for 6 yards (45-Er.Wilson).
- (2:53) 4-D.Swift right end to GB 49 for 5 yards (53-A.Mosby; 93-T.Slaton).
- (2:10) 4-D.Swift up the middle to GB 43 for 6 yards (58-I.McDuffie; 45-Er.Wilson).
- (1:55) 18-C.Williams pass short left to 2-D.Moore to CHI 47 for no gain (24-C.Valentine). FUMBLES (24-C.Valentine), RECOVERED by GB-20-J.Bullard at CHI 46. 20-J.Bullard to CHI 43 for 3 yards (75-L.Borom).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.53 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-7.42 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.53 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.50 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.01 pts |
| QB keep | -0.14 pts |
| Quick out | -0.15 pts |
| Outside run | -0.15 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.25 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.43 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.55 pts |
| Play action | -0.67 pts |
| Curl route | -0.74 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.78 pts |
| Inside run | -0.84 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.57 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.78 pts |
| End-around | -3.29 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.33 pts |
| Deep post | -4.60 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.00 pts |
| Flea flicker | -7.42 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.