Vikings vs Lions — Week 7, 2024
The Vikings took over leading 29-28 with 4:16 left, 1st & 10 at their own 22, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Lions.
What really happened
Final: Vikings 29, Lions 31. Lions won 31-29 — the drive turned it over.
Vikings ball, up 1 — every first down is a dagger. At their own 22, 4:16 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 72.9% for Vikings. Our model starts at 61.8%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:16) 33-A.Jones left tackle to MIN 27 for 5 yards (93-J.Paschal).
- (3:31) 33-A.Jones left end to MIN 28 for 1 yard (53-T.Nowaske, 46-J.Campbell).
- (2:46) (Shotgun) 14-S.Darnold pass incomplete deep right to 18-J.Jefferson.
- (2:41) 17-R.Wright punts 51 yards to DET 21, Center-42-A.DePaola. 11-K.Raymond to DET 30 for 9 yards (11-T.Sherfield).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+0.79 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-6.28 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +0.79 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.74 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.32 pts |
| QB keep | +0.12 pts |
| Quick out | +0.03 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.08 pts |
| Curl route | -0.12 pts |
| Play action | -0.20 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.32 pts |
| Outside run | -0.34 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.62 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.88 pts |
| Inside run | -1.08 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.72 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.08 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.52 pts |
| End-around | -2.97 pts |
| Deep post | -3.33 pts |
| Receiver pass | -5.08 pts |
| Flea flicker | -6.28 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.