Chargers vs Bengals — Week 11, 2024
The Chargers took over tied at 27 with 1:48 left, 1st & 10 at their own 41, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Bengals.
What really happened
Final: Chargers 34, Bengals 27. Chargers won 34-27 — the drive turned it over.
Chargers ball, even score — any score wins it. At their own 41, 1:48 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 67.0% for Chargers. Our model starts at 65.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:48) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 15-L.McConkey.
- (1:43) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete short right to 15-L.McConkey (21-M.Hilton) [92-B.Hill].
- (1:39) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass incomplete deep middle to 5-J.Palmer (28-J.Newton).
- (1:34) 16-J.Scott punts 43 yards to CIN 16, Center-47-J.Harris, fair catch by 16-T.Irwin.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Quick slant (+1.39 pts), and the weakest was Deep post (-3.42 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Quick slant | +1.39 pts |
| QB keep | +1.10 pts |
| Pull RPO | +1.03 pts |
| Curl route | +0.66 pts |
| Quick out | +0.54 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.40 pts |
| Outside run | +0.32 pts |
| Take a knee | +0.29 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.11 pts |
| Play action | +0.02 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.30 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.51 pts |
| Inside run | -0.62 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.27 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -2.05 pts |
| Deep corner | -2.49 pts |
| Spike it | -2.71 pts |
| Deep post | -3.42 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.