Jaguars vs Texans — Week 4, 2024
The Jaguars took over leading 20-17 with 3:51 left, 1st & 10 at their own 28, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Texans.
What really happened
Final: Jaguars 20, Texans 24. Texans won 24-20 — the drive turned it over.
Jaguars ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 28, 3:51 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 75.0% for Jaguars. Our model starts at 76.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:51) 1-T.Etienne left tackle to JAX 29 for 1 yard (98-T.Settle).
- (3:14) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short right to 0-G.Davis (5-J.Pitre).
- (3:08) (Shotgun) 16-T.Lawrence pass incomplete short middle to 13-C.Kirk (23-E.Murray).
- (3:05) 9-L.Cooke punts 49 yards to HOU 22, Center-46-R.Matiscik. 2-R.Woods to HOU 31 for 9 yards (51-V.Miller).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.65 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.33 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.65 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.33 pts |
| Outside run | -0.13 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.24 pts |
| Quick out | -0.28 pts |
| QB keep | -0.35 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.38 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.48 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.52 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.69 pts |
| Inside run | -0.73 pts |
| Play action | -1.05 pts |
| Curl route | -1.21 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.53 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.32 pts |
| End-around | -3.67 pts |
| Deep corner | -3.95 pts |
| Deep post | -5.58 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.75 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.33 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.