Ravens vs Cowboys — Week 3, 2024
The Ravens took over leading 28-25 with 2:44 left, 1st & 10 at their own 21, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Cowboys.
What really happened
Final: Ravens 28, Cowboys 25. Ravens won 28-25 — the drive time expired.
Ravens ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 21, 2:44 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 74.5% for Ravens. Our model starts at 78.7%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (2:44) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson up the middle to BAL 25 for 4 yards (58-M.Smith).
- (2:40) (Shotgun) 22-D.Henry up the middle to BAL 25 for no gain (11-M.Parsons).
- (2:36) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 4-Z.Flowers to BAL 34 for 9 yards (7-T.Diggs).
- (2:28) 22-D.Henry right tackle to BAL 35 for 1 yard (21-C.Carson).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson left guard to BAL 45 for 10 yards (13-D.Overshown; 50-E.Kendricks).
- (1:13) 8-L.Jackson kneels to BAL 44 for -1 yards.
- (:33) 8-L.Jackson kneels to BAL 43 for -1 yards.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.54 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.40 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.54 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.47 pts |
| Outside run | +0.29 pts |
| QB keep | +0.06 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.10 pts |
| Quick out | -0.17 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.26 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| Inside run | -0.37 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.42 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.46 pts |
| Curl route | -1.09 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.18 pts |
| Play action | -1.26 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -3.62 pts |
| End-around | -3.69 pts |
| Deep corner | -4.27 pts |
| Deep post | -6.07 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.79 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.40 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.