Saints vs Giants — Week 14, 2024
The Saints took over leading 14-11 with 4:11 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Giants.
What really happened
Final: Saints 14, Giants 11. Saints won 14-11 — the drive turned it over.
Saints ball, up 3 — a field goal forces them to score a touchdown. At their own 30, 4:11 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 74.8% for Saints. Our model starts at 76.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:11) 4-D.Carr pass incomplete deep left to 10-M.Valdes-Scantling.
- (4:06) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr right end pushed ob at NO 39 for 9 yards (21-A.Jackson; 24-D.Belton). NO-4-D.Carr was injured during the play.
- (3:59) #3 - J.Haener in at QB. 25-K.Miller left end to NO 38 for -1 yards (41-M.McFadden).
- (3:16) 43-M.Hayball punts 51 yards to NYG 11, Center-49-Z.Wood. 87-I.Smith-Marsette pushed ob at NYG 14 for 3 yards (48-J.Gray).
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Take a knee (+1.66 pts), and the weakest was Flea flicker (-8.34 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Take a knee | +1.66 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.57 pts |
| Quick out | -0.06 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.15 pts |
| Outside run | -0.17 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.27 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.29 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.31 pts |
| QB keep | -0.40 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.71 pts |
| Inside run | -0.76 pts |
| Curl route | -1.28 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.56 pts |
| Play action | -3.15 pts |
| End-around | -3.69 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -5.48 pts |
| Deep corner | -6.11 pts |
| Receiver pass | -6.77 pts |
| Deep post | -7.92 pts |
| Flea flicker | -8.34 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.