Falcons vs Panthers — Week 18, 2024
The Falcons took over trailing 38-31 with 4:01 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Panthers.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 38, Panthers 38. Tied 38-38 — the drive scored.
Falcons ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 30, 4:01 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 16.6% for Falcons. Our model starts at 13.1%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:01) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson right tackle to ATL 42 for 12 yards (36-D.Richardson).
- (3:24) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson right tackle to CAR 49 for 9 yards (57-C.Wooten; 99-S.Tuttle).
- (2:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson right tackle to CAR 44 for 5 yards (45-C.Gill; 96-J.Crumedy).
- (2:30) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 5-D.London to CAR 35 for 9 yards (45-C.Gill; 57-C.Wooten).
- (2:06) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson left guard to CAR 25 for 10 yards (96-J.Crumedy; 20-J.Fuller).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short middle to 5-D.London (2-M.Jackson).
- (1:55) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete deep left to 5-D.London.
- (1:51) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 5-D.London to CAR 14 for 11 yards (36-D.Richardson).
- (1:24) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short right to 8-K.Pitts pushed ob at CAR 8 for 6 yards (25-X.Woods).
- (1:19) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson right guard to CAR 4 for 4 yards (57-C.Wooten; 20-J.Fuller).
- (:52) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson left end for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.90 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.37 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.90 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.63 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.60 pts |
| Deep post | +0.59 pts |
| QB keep | +0.52 pts |
| Play action | +0.35 pts |
| Quick out | +0.23 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.17 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.06 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.03 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.04 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.35 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.41 pts |
| Outside run | -0.67 pts |
| Inside run | -0.99 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.10 pts |
| Spike it | -1.37 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.