Bengals vs Patriots — Week 1, 2024
The Bengals took over trailing 16-10 with 3:04 left, 1st & 10 at their own 10, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Patriots.
What really happened
Final: Bengals 10, Patriots 16. Patriots won 16-10 — the drive turned it over.
Bengals ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. Backed up at their own 10, 3:04 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 16.1% for Bengals. Our model starts at 13.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (3:04) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short right to 80-A.Iosivas.
- (3:00) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass incomplete short middle to 31-Z.Moss.
- (2:56) (Shotgun) 9-J.Burrow pass short right to 31-Z.Moss to CIN 15 for 5 yards (8-J.Bentley; 23-K.Dugger).
- (2:26) 8-R.Rehkow punts 70 yards to NE 15, Center-48-C.Adomitis. 25-M.Jones to NE 25 for 10 yards (48-C.Adomitis). PENALTY on CIN, Illegal Substitution, 5 yards, enforced at NE 25.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (-0.27 pts), and the weakest was Off-tackle run (-1.74 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | -0.27 pts |
| Curl route | -0.49 pts |
| Pull RPO | -0.60 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.67 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.86 pts |
| Quick slant | -0.89 pts |
| Play action | -0.91 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.92 pts |
| QB keep | -0.92 pts |
| Quick out | -0.94 pts |
| Quick hook | -0.96 pts |
| Quick RPO | -1.02 pts |
| Screen pass | -1.09 pts |
| Spike it | -1.37 pts |
| Inside run | -1.61 pts |
| Outside run | -1.66 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.74 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.