Buccaneers vs Chiefs — Week 9, 2024
The Buccaneers took over trailing 24-17 with 4:17 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 3 timeouts in hand, against the Chiefs.
What really happened
Final: Buccaneers 24, Chiefs 24. Tied 24-24 — the drive turned it over.
Buccaneers ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 30, 4:17 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 16.8% for Buccaneers. Our model starts at 14.2%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:17) 7-B.Irving right guard to TB 32 for 2 yards (95-C.Jones).
- (3:37) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield sacked at TB 24 for -8 yards (sack split by 23-D.Tranquill and 97-F.Anudike-Uzomah).
- (2:55) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass incomplete deep left to 81-R.Miller (27-C.Conner).
- (2:49) 16-T.Gill punts 31 yards to KC 45, Center-45-Z.Triner, downed by TB-52-K.Britt. PENALTY on KC-30-C.Roland-Wallace, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at KC 45.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.90 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.46 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.90 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.63 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.61 pts |
| QB keep | +0.53 pts |
| Deep post | +0.50 pts |
| Play action | +0.33 pts |
| Quick out | +0.22 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.16 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.00 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.03 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.05 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.38 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.43 pts |
| Outside run | -0.68 pts |
| Inside run | -1.01 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.14 pts |
| Spike it | -1.46 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.