Falcons vs Commanders — Week 17, 2024
The Falcons took over trailing 24-17 with 4:25 left, 1st & 10 at their own 32, 2 timeouts in hand, against the Commanders.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 24, Commanders 24. Tied 24-24 — the drive scored.
Falcons ball, down 7 — it takes a touchdown. At their own 32, 4:25 on the clock.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 17.1% for Falcons. Our model starts at 14.3%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (4:25) (Shotgun) 7-B.Robinson left end pushed ob at ATL 37 for 5 yards (0-M.Sainristil).
- (4:18) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete deep right to 5-D.London.
- (4:13) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 5-D.London ran ob at WAS 49 for 14 yards.
- (3:57) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short middle to 7-B.Robinson to ATL 47 for 6 yards (6-D.Fowler; 92-D.Armstrong).
- (3:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Penix scrambles up the middle to 50 for 3 yards (90-J.Jean-Baptiste; 92-D.Armstrong).
- (2:39) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete deep right to 8-K.Pitts (11-J.Chinn).
- (2:34) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass deep left to 5-D.London pushed ob at WAS 19 for 31 yards (20-Q.Martin).
- (2:25) 34-R.McCloud right end pushed ob at WAS 5 for 14 yards (20-Q.Martin).
- (2:19) (Shotgun) Direct snap to 7-B.Robinson. 7-B.Robinson FUMBLES (Aborted) at WAS 10, and recovers at WAS 24. 7-B.Robinson to WAS 26 for -2 yards (96-J.Holmes).
- (2:00) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short left to 5-D.London to WAS 13 for 13 yards (24-M.Davis).
- (1:27) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass incomplete short right to 5-D.London.
- (1:23) (Shotgun) 9-M.Penix pass short middle to 8-K.Pitts for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Curl route (+0.88 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.46 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Curl route | +0.88 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.62 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.61 pts |
| QB keep | +0.53 pts |
| Deep post | +0.46 pts |
| Play action | +0.33 pts |
| Quick out | +0.22 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.16 pts |
| Deep comebacker | -0.02 pts |
| Screen pass | -0.05 pts |
| Deep corner | -0.05 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.37 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.42 pts |
| Outside run | -0.64 pts |
| Inside run | -0.98 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.10 pts |
| Spike it | -1.46 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.