Falcons vs Eagles — Week 2, 2024
The Falcons took over trailing 21-15 with 1:39 left, 1st & 10 at their own 30, 0 timeouts in hand, against the Eagles.
What really happened
Final: Falcons 22, Eagles 21. Falcons won 22-21 — the drive scored.
Falcons ball, down 6 — they need a touchdown to lead. At their own 30, 1:39 on the clock, no timeouts left.
nflverse's historical win-probability estimate for this exact situation was 16.2% for Falcons. Our model starts at 10.0%. The two numbers are estimates, not verdicts — the gap between them is a reminder that endgame win probability is hard to pin down.
The real drive, snap by snap
- (1:39) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short middle to 8-K.Pitts to ATL 41 for 11 yards (17-N.Dean).
- (1:20) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep left to 1-D.Mooney to PHI 38 for 21 yards (32-R.Blankenship).
- (:56) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass deep left to 1-D.Mooney ran ob at PHI 12 for 26 yards (53-Z.Baun).
- (:48) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short left to 5-D.London pushed ob at PHI 7 for 5 yards (27-Q.Mitchell).
- (:43) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass incomplete short middle to 34-R.McCloud (29-A.Maddox).
- (:38) (Shotgun) 18-K.Cousins pass short right to 5-D.London for 7 yards, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on ATL-5-D.London, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs.
The opening call, by win probability
At the first snap, the strongest opening call in our model was Deep post (+1.21 pts), and the weakest was Spike it (-1.11 pts). A positive number means the call improved the offense's expected win probability; a negative number means it cost them.
| Opening call | Expected WP change |
|---|---|
| Deep post | +1.21 pts |
| Curl route | +1.14 pts |
| Pull RPO | +0.80 pts |
| Quick slant | +0.70 pts |
| QB keep | +0.59 pts |
| Play action | +0.53 pts |
| Deep corner | +0.42 pts |
| Deep comebacker | +0.41 pts |
| Quick out | +0.33 pts |
| Quick hook | +0.27 pts |
| Screen pass | +0.06 pts |
| Quick RPO | -0.25 pts |
| QB sneak | -0.35 pts |
| Outside run | -0.73 pts |
| Inside run | -1.00 pts |
| Off-tackle run | -1.07 pts |
| Spike it | -1.11 pts |
This is our own model estimate, not the real coach's grade and not a claim about what the “correct” call was. Football decisions depend on the opponent, personnel and game plan — the model only measures how a call changes win probability in this situation.